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Rightward Shift May Squeeze
Centrists
BY: Charles Babington and Juliet
Eilperin, Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday's Republican sweep of the
South will reshape the next Senate, replacing
moderate Democrats sometimes willing to cross party
lines with ardent GOP conservatives who will press
their leaders for a more right-leaning agenda,
according to analysts.
Republicans claimed Senate seats vacated by
Democrats in Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, North
Carolina and South Carolina. In South Dakota,
Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle fell to a
challenger closely identified with President Bush.
And a GOP-crafted House redistricting plan in Texas
led to the defeat of four veteran Democratic
lawmakers and helped Republicans expand their
majority by three and possibly four seats.
These changes have the potential to reduce the
importance of Republican moderates, especially in
the Senate, and embolden conservatives in the White
House and elsewhere, these analysts said. But they
also might heap unrealistic expectations on Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), who still
lacks a filibuster-proof majority as he weighs a
2008 presidential bid.
The GOP's bare Senate majority of 51 members will
grow to 55, but the impact goes beyond mere numbers.
Replacing Sen. Ernest F. Hollings (D-S.C.), often
a bridge between the two parties on spending and
deficit questions, is Rep. Jim DeMint, whose call
for abolishing federal income, payroll and estate
taxes is considered extreme even by some fellow
Republicans. Succeeding Sen. John Breaux (D-La.), a
key broker on sticky issues such as Medicare, is
mainstream Republican Rep. David Vitter, who seems
unlikely to play such a bipartisan role.
"Regrettably, we have seen an erosion in the
Senate of centrists on both sides of the aisle,"
said Sen. Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, a Republican
moderate whose leverage may drop substantially in
the next Congress. She said she hoped Bush will push
for cooperation between the two parties.
Another GOP moderate, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee
(R.I.), expressed even deeper disappointment,
telling the Providence Journal he would not rule out
switching to the Democratic Party.
While Frist celebrated the victories that will
leave only four Democratic senators in the former
Confederacy, some political scholars noted he must
oversee a diverse delegation that still has enough
moderates to occasionally frustrate Bush's agenda.
But in light of Tuesday's election results,
conservatives in the House and White House may show
less patience with roadblocks to drilling for oil in
Alaska wildlife refuges or limiting civil
liabilities for doctors and others.
"The locus of power has moved dramatically to the
right in the Senate," said Marshall Wittmann, a
senior fellow at the Democratic Leadership Council
and former staff member for the Christian Coalition
and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Whereas Democratic
and moderate Republican senators often could derail
or temper conservative initiatives from the House,
he said, "that now becomes much more difficult."
The trick for Frist, he said, will be to nudge
Congress's agenda to the right without appearing to
cede control to hard-core partisans such as House
Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.). With a beefed-up
majority that still lacks the 60 votes needed to
block a filibuster, Wittmann said, "Frist has a
dilemma that he may luxuriate in or he may rue."
His best option, several analysts said, may
involve appealing to Democrats who will view
Tuesday's results as a warning to those who try to
thwart the president's agenda.
Frist's GOP colleagues already are raising
expectations. Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), head of the
National Republican Senatorial Committee, told
reporters that voters should expect a
"reinvigorated, stronger Republican majority in the
Senate" that will push aggressively for new judicial
appointments and an array of measures the Democrats
have stymied in recent years, such as a far-reaching
energy bill.
According to Allen, Americans said, "We don't
want partisan bickering, we want action."
But Frist's challenge is greater than many people
realize, said James Thurber, director of American
University's Center for Congressional and
Presidential Studies. The election results, he said,
will embolden DeLay and other House leaders to
accelerate their strategy of "sending fairly
conservative and edgy legislation to the Senate."
Awaiting it there will be staunch conservative
newcomers such as DeMint and senator-elect Tom
Coburn (R-Okla.), considered the most right-leaning
of the nine new senators elected Tuesday.
But the GOP caucus still includes Snowe, McCain,
Chafee and other moderates such as Susan Collins of
Maine and George Voinovich of Ohio. When those
Republicans side with Democrats, Thurber said, "The
Senate continues to be deadlocked over issues the
president will want to deal with, such as Social
Security and even energy."
"The appointment of a Supreme Court justice,"
which seems likely in Bush's second term, "will be
the major battleground," he said. Voters may find it
hard to understand -- and forgive -- if Democrats
mount a filibuster that Frist cannot overcome.
The next Senate will have 55 Republicans, 44
Democrats and a liberal-leaning independent.
Republicans achieved the four-seat gain by winning
all but one of Tuesday's nine closely watched races.
They grabbed the five open southern seats, toppled
Daschle and hung on to embattled seats in Oklahoma,
Alaska -- where Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) fended off
former Democratic governor Tony Knowles -- and
Kentucky, where Sen. Jim Bunning (R) survived a
strong challenge from Democrat Daniel Mongiardo. As
expected, they lost their open seat in Illinois. The
only Republican disappointment came in Colorado,
where Democrat Ken Salazar defeated beer magnate
Pete Coors to replace retiring Sen. Ben Nighthorse
Campbell (R).
The GOP success was especially galling to
Democrats because they felt they offered strong
nominees in every race except Georgia's. But just as
Thune did to Daschle in South Dakota, the southern
Republicans linked their opponents to John F. Kerry,
Hillary Rodham Clinton and other symbols of
Democratic liberalism at every opportunity.
Democratic nominees such as Betty Castor in Florida,
Erskine B. Bowles in North Carolina and Inez
Tenenbaum in South Carolina portrayed themselves as
independent leaders concerned mainly about their
home states, but voters apparently were unconvinced.
Castor was narrowly defeated by Republican Mel R.
Martinez, a former housing and urban development
secretary in the Bush administration.
Democrats were equally despondent on the House
side, though they insisted that voters will hold
Republicans accountable if they overreach. Minority
Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters: "Any
doubt in anyone's mind about who's in control has
now been removed. . . . The responsibility to get a
job done rests on them."
The House elections left the GOP with at least
231 seats, the Democrats with 201 and one
independent, with two Louisiana contests awaiting a
Dec. 4 runoff. In Texas, where DeLay engineered a
bitterly partisan redistricting, Democrats lost two
of their most senior members, Martin Frost and
Charles W. Stenholm.
In Connecticut, Democrats failed to unseat two
GOP moderates, Reps. Christopher Shays and Rob
Simmons. The election underscored the GOP's staying
power, marking the largest number of House
Republicans elected since 1946.
Senate Republicans are still five votes shy of
the 60 needed to cut off Democratic filibusters, but
some said Bush's victory and GOP gains in Congress
may give Democrats second thoughts about blocking as
many Republican initiatives -- including judicial
nominations as well as legislation -- as they
blocked during the last two years.
"With 55 Republicans in the Senate and especially
with the defeat of Senator Daschle, judicial
nominations will be an area where [Democrats] will
have to reassess their obstructionism," said Sen.
John Cornyn (R-Tex.).
But Cornyn and others also suggested that a lot
hinges on Bush. "The president has a great
opportunity here to strike a positive tone, and that
could do a lot to cool tempers and partisan passions
in the Senate," Cornyn said.
Staff writer Helen Dewar and researcher Don
Pohlman contributed to this report.
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