Arctic temperatures rose twice as fast during the last century as the rest of the world, and within decades the warming trend threatens animals in the region and coastal flooding worldwide, scientists warned a Senate panel Tuesday. The findings are incendiary because a growing political faction seeks to avoid those problems by curbing heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide from coal-burning power plants. But industry representatives contend temperatures fluctuate naturally and President Bush has refused to regulate carbon dioxide because it could hurt the economy.

The warnings Tuesday to the Senate Commerce Committee came from a 1,200-page study from a group of 300 scientists and other experts called the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

"This is the scientific community speaking in its most honest and open voice that it can possibly know," said Robert Corell, chairman of the assessment and a senior fellow at the American Meteorological Society.

He compared the Arctic to an ice cube in a glass - and the Antarctic's much thicker ice to perhaps 12 ice cubes in a glass. The less ice, the easier it is to melt - and cause more problems.

"Any model, any data you look at, you'll see that the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet," Corell said.

After the worldwide average temperature rose about 1 degree Celsius during the last century, the study projected Arctic temperature would rise 4 to 7 degrees Celsius during the next century.

The changes could devastate polar bears, ice-dependent seals and the people who prey on them, Corell said. In Maine, tree sap is running a week earlier than it did 50 years ago and the sea level has risen four inches.

The projected additional warming could raise the sea level perhaps three feet, according to a moderate projection in the study. That would flood nearly all of the Florida peninsula below Miami, according to the study.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has highlighted the problem in a series of hearings as chairman of the Commerce Committee. But McCain muted criticism of President Bush's administration during the campaign and avoided calling for a vote on his legislation to limit carbon dioxide.

Bush had promised to regulate carbon dioxide during the 2000 campaign, but later reversed himself, saying it would hurt the economy too much.

Meanwhile, last year Maine became the first state to set specific goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with a goal of returning to 1990 levels by 2010.

"The fact that much of the warming being witnessed today in the Arctic is due to human behavior offers hope that we may still stem the tide of global warming through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions," Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, a Commerce Committee member, said in a statement.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, traveled with McCain to northern Norway in August to see evidence of ice melt.

"The Arctic is the canary in the mine that should serve as a warning to the rest of us," Collins said in testimony submitted to the committee. "In Maine, the ski industry, agriculture and fisheries could be particularly hard hit."

Not everyone agrees. A group of 11 scholars, including Jon Reisman, associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of Maine at Machias, argued that temperature changes could be part of normal fluctuations over time.

"The history of the Arctic and its ecosystems remains complex, a fact too often perceived by reporters under deadline or extremists as irrelevant nuance," the 11 scholars wrote.

Staff Writer Bart Jansen can be contacted at 202-488-1119 or at:

bjansen@pressherald.com